Busby and Payne ( 1998 ) conducted a six-month, qualitative study of the predictions engineers make about the expected duration of design activities. They were primarily interested in describing how engineers made predictions ( e.g. the strategies used ), and what influenced these judgments ( e.g. their experience, environment etc. ). To do this, they interviewed a number of engineers and engineering managers involved in large-scale design projects ( of approximately six-year duration ). They coded the transcripts of the interviews into information related to the predictions being made ( namely the strategy employed, effort expended, and judgment outcome ) and influences shaping those predictions ( personal influences, task influences, and environmental influences ).
In my opinion, the most relevant conclusion concerns their argument that environmental factors are strong influences on these judgments of engineers. The environmental factors to which they refer are largely situational aspects of the work environment, rather than physically manipulable environments. Namely, the influences they discuss are ( a ) the predictability and variability of the task, ( b ) the available records of outcomes of previous projects, ( c ) organisational structure and the way projects were carried out, ( d ) external incentives to generate biased predictions ( such as budget allocation ), ( e ) the requirement that predictions be justified, and ( f ) the fact that many predictions had to be later revised in order to satisfy other requirements ( such as submitting a competitive bid ). These factors lead Busby and Payne to comment that “judgment environments matter, probably as much as cognitive structures, and should be investigated as much as cognitive structures” ( p. 289 ).
|
[ListAllPages] |